大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性研究进展(英文)

编号 zgly0001585580

文献类型 期刊论文

文献题名 大尺度水循环模拟系统不确定性研究进展(英文)

作者 宋晓猛  占车生  孔凡哲  夏军 

作者单位 SchoolofResourceandEarthScience  ChinaUniversityofMining&Technology  KeyLaboratoryofWaterCycle&RelatedLandSurfaceProcesses  InstituteofGeographicSciencesandNaturalResourcesResearch  CAS 

母体文献 Journal of Geographical Sciences 

年卷期 2011年05期

年份 2011 

分类号 P333.6 

关键词 uncertaintyquantification  hydrologicalmodel  PSUADE  land-atmospherecouplingmodel  largescale 

文摘内容 The regional hydrological system is extremely complex because it is affected not only by physical factors but also by human dimensions.And the hydrological models play a very important role in simulating the complex system.However,there have not been effective methods for the model reliability and uncertainty analysis due to its complexity and difficulty.The uncertainties in hydrological modeling come from four important aspects:uncertainties in input data and parameters,uncertainties in model structure,uncertainties in analysis method and the initial and boundary conditions.This paper systematically reviewed the recent advances in the study of the uncertainty analysis approaches in the large-scale complex hydrological model on the basis of uncertainty sources.Also,the shortcomings and insufficiencies in the uncertainty analysis for complex hydrological models are pointed out.And then a new uncertainty quantification platform PSUADE and its uncertainty quantification methods were introduced,which will be a powerful tool and platform for uncertainty analysis of large-scale complex hydrological models.Finally,some future perspectives on uncertainty quantification are put forward.